Friday, November 30, 2012

Saturday Football Preview and Picks.....

Friday night's two great games have set the bar high this weekend.  Let's hope Saturday can keep it going!  Kent did fall short of having a BCS shot.  But does a team that lost to Kentucky really deserve a BCS birth?  Well, it would have sort of cool to have them in I guess.  NIU is a longshot, but needs help.

Before we get to the games I like on Saturday, how about the over/under line in the Oklahoma vs. Baylor game??  It opened at 81.5 and has climbed all the way to an absurd 88.5!!!!  It's the highest total in recorded Vegas history.  Covers.com did a nice write up on it.  I think it certainly has the potential to get that high, however any value in taking over would probably have to have been done near the open, and is probably gone now.  Still might hit 90, but I see no value in betting it.  No way I'm touching the under.

Now....on to the games.......

Kansas at West Virginia (1:30 PM CT)
Current Line (West Virginia -20, O/U 71)
Big 12 bottom feeder Kansas rolls into Morgantown to take on WVU.  This one is pretty simple for me.  WVU has had their struggles on D, no secret.  But for the most part, their struggles were against teams with above average offenses, and that could move the ball through the air.  KU is not that team.  Conversely, WVU should have no issue getting in the end zone vs a team that gives up a lot of points on the road.  Lay the points here. West Virginia 49, Kansas 17: Play (West Virginia -20)

Florida State vs Georgia Tech (7:00 PM CT)
Current Line (FSU -14, O/U 61)
If you read my post yesterday, you know what I think of Georgia Tech. They are bad, very bad.  FSU has had a few ups and downs, but not this week.  FSU rolls and clinches their spot in the Orange Bowl.  No other thinking necessary on this one.  Oh, did I mention Georgia Tech sucks??  They do, watch the game if you don't believe me. Florida State 42, Georgia Tech 14: Play (FSU -14)


Those are my two top plays.  Here a couple more I like, but might not play, or will play smaller.

Wisconsin +3 vs Nebraska 
Just got a feelin' the Badgers keep this one close and pull out the win.  

Hawai'i -6 vs South Alabama
This is such a garbage game I can't believe I'm even considering it, but Hawai'i is playing better, and South Bama just plain sucks, and now has to travel half way across the world, almost literally.  If you like this game, take it now, as it might be -7 by kickoff. 

OK, now onto the big game.




The SEC Championship game, the "national semifinal" if you will.  Bama opened up at -7.5 and the line has pretty much held there all week.  Not sure I like it that much on that side of a key number.  However, I am just having a hard time figuring out how Georgia is going to stop Bama.  Georgia has given up some points and yards this year to some less than impressive offenses (Buffalo, FAU, South Carolina, Kentucky).  I'm not saying UGA is a bad team, they are really good, but from what I've seen from Bama they are just better. They struggled for one half against A & M, but once they started opening things up, they really showed what they had, but just came up short.  UGA is going to have to pressure McCarron and force some turnovers.  I just don't see it.  Not calling for a blowout, but I think Bama wins by 10+.  Alabama 31, Georgia 17: Play (Alabama -7.5)

Now for the kicker....I won't be able to watch most of these games thanks to my company office party!!  Oh well, at least it's an open bar!!

Good luck!!!

bk






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